Registering these now. A lot can change in seven days, but I think most of these are pretty locked up.

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Help
If more than 5: War Horse, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, Drive, Melancholia
I am rooting for: I haven’t seen enough of these yet to say! Not War Horse. I need to see The Artist because I’m really intrigued by the concept.

Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Martin Scorcese, Hugo
Dark horse: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
I am rooting for: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life. If we get down to the brass tacks of what this award is about, I think the fact that Malick doesn’t have one of these is kind of atrocious.

Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Dark horse: Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
I am rooting for: Jean Dujardin, mostly because I find him kind of hot. Idk man, this is the category I always do not care about at all.

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Viola Davis, The Help
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Dark horse: Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
I am rooting for: Viola Davis, one of my very favorite actresses. It’s a shame she’s only being properly recognized for a problematic film, but at this stage in her career this award would mean a lot in terms of star power, continued momentum, and general career trajectory. Part of me is also pulling for Glenn Close, one of the most talented actresses alive today — and a perpetual nominee who has never won — but her subtle performance in Albert Nobbs wasn’t popular enough to really put her in the ‘potential winner’ conversation. I think Rooney Mara might take her nomination spot, even.

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Dark horse: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
I am rooting for: Janet McTeer, a wonderful actress who has never had the recognition she deserves, in part because it’s the only recognition Albert Nobbs — a flawed film with nevertheless important things to say — is likely to get. McTeer is also unquestionably the best thing about the film, so it wouldn’t be unjust if that’s the only award received. I’d also be happy with a win for Spencer or McCarthy.

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Dark horse: Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
I am rooting for: Christopher Plummer, who is 81 years old. It’s time, guys. Let’s not Peter O’Toole this.

Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Jeff Nichols, Take Shelter
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
Diablo Cody, Young Adult
Dark horse: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
I am rooting for: We all know how I feel about Young Adult. It won’t win, but I wish there was a special category called Most Improved Screenwriter and I could just nominate Diablo Cody five times.

Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball
Tate Taylor, The Help
John Logan, Hugo
Bridget O’Connor and Peter Strong, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Dark horse: Steven Zaillian, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
I am rooting for: Anyone but Aaron Sorkin, basically.